Building permits for the third quarter were
very weak again. Building permits totals bottomed out in Q1
-2009 for most of our markets and have been climbing out of
that dark hole for five consecutuive quarters.
By the end of Q2 -2010, seceral markets were
on pace to have double digit percent increases by the year
end that were hopefully a sign of things to come. But in early
July, the markets hit a brick wall and building permit totals
for Q3-2010 ended up very weak. As a reult, the year-to-date
2010 gains were lost.
Here is a summary of year-to-date totals by Market:
Kentucky, LEXINGTON......... -9.5%
Kentucky, LOUISVILLE......... -7.8%
North Carolina, ASHEVILLE........ -14.5%
North Carolina, CHARLOTTE........ +1.2%
North Carolina, HICKORY........... -21.1%
North Carolina, TRIAD................ -8.6%
North Carolina, TRIANGLE......... +10.7%
South CarolinaC UPSTATE........ ... -3.0%
Tennessee, CHATTANOOGA. .. -1.9%
Tennessee, KNOXVILLE....... .. -1.6%
Tennessee, TRI-CITIES...... ..+20.2%
On a positive note, the "EP" ratio continues to
improve in most counties were we produce an in delpth trend
report (The "E/P" Employment/Permit) ratio is a
general indication of housing demand. A ratio of 3/1 is considered
a strong housing market. Three new jobs for each building
permit issued. Some counties reported an E/P ratio of six
in the peak of the housing frenzy in 2006. Conversely, some
counties have been as low as negative eight. in recent quarters,
which is terrible.
THE INTERESTING NEWS IS THE E/P RATIO BOTTOMED OUT IN OCTOBER
OF 2009 AND HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT FROM Q4-2009
THROUGH Q3-2010. THE E/P RATIO IS GOOD PREDICTOR FOR FUTURE
GROWTH.
IF YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS REPORT FOR THE FIRST TIME: THE REGIONAL
BUILDING PERMIT TREND REPORT IS SIMPLY A MAP OF THE COUNTIES
WHERE WE COMPILE BUILDING PERMIT DATA PLUS THE CORRESPONDING
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT TOTALS FOR EACH OF THOSE COUNTIES.
THIS REPORT IS PRODUCED EACH CALENDAR QUARTER AND E-MAILED
FREE OF CHARGE TO OUR CUSTOMERS, PROSPECTS, ASSOCIATES, VARIOUS
HOMEBUILDERS, HOMEBUILDER ASSOCIATIONS AND THEIR MEMBERS,
CODE ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS, PLANNING AGENCIES, AND GOVERNMENTAL
OFFICIALS.
Got any questions email us: info@MyStateTENNESSEE.com
